Data integration and statistical models from Simplex allow Bunge to optimize its marketing budget

Specialized marketing startup uses algorithms to predict with 75% accuracy the impact of offline and online campaigns

São Paulo, October 7, 2020 - Bunge, one of the largest agribusiness and food companies in the world, can already predict how sales of its brands should behave throughout the year depending on the marketing investment made in each region of the country.

The capacity is the result of a project conducted with the start-up Simplex, which integrated the three-year history of ten different databases - ranging from sales results over time, investments made in different media, product participation at points of sale, prices charged at retail and demand forecast, to regional rates of progress of the Covid-19 pandemic. The project went further. Another of its pillars was the development of a tool to automate the application of statistical models on this sea of data to enable scenario forecasting.

"Today we are not only able to measure the results that TV, radio or digital media campaigns have had on sales, but we already have an algorithm that predicts with 75% accuracy what the ROI (return on investment) of future campaigns will be in each region of the country."

celebrates João Galoppi, head of Digital Marketing at Bunge.

According to the executive, the accuracy of the forecasts tends to increase, since the predictive statistical models adopted are improved through artificial intelligence as they are used. For him, one of the biggest challenges in his area was to understand why a campaign worked so well in one place and not in another. And, of course, whether the marketing budget had been well allocated across the various media available. "We obviously had some assumptions. But today, on the contrary, we have organized data and its countless possible crossings ", he highlights. According to the executive, Bunge today is already able to identify, in detail, the weight that the price increase in a given square has to neutralize the marketing efforts that were aimed at that region. Or see the peculiarity of a particular market and how its consumer or buyer reacts - since they are not always the same person - as a result of promotions or advertisements.

Galoppi argues that, especially in the current scenario, optimizing investment based on data is the most efficient way to overcome the crisis and increase the potential reach of the marketing budget. "Simplex was decisive in this process given its expertise in predictive statistical models and the development of the tool that allows us to see the whole scenario through intuitive dashboards", he summarizes.

Data under the magnifying glass

The integration and cross-checking of information took place on ten different databases, taking into account both advertising and marketing, as well as those focused on physical sales channels. Among the various information collected and organized, Galoppi lists the audience points of campaigns carried out, the cost of online and offline campaigns, participation of each campaign modality, total impressions and clicks. On another front, Nielsen data were also collected, such as volume and brand share on retail shelves, the months in which Bunge advertised and the periods in which it carried out marketing actions aimed at offline sales channels.

 "What we have in hand today is a better informed decision making", Galoppi guarantees. For the head of Bunge's Digital Marketing area, Simplex's participation in the process was decisive: the start-up allowed greater speed to the work developed. "We completed our plan in less than 6 months", he celebrates. For the executive, another success factor of the initiative was the performance of a multidisciplinary team, covering a dozen people, from advertisers to chemical engineers, in addition to involving several areas of the company, which gave a richer and more diverse look at the challenges posed.

 "In digital markets everything can be measured, from the first click to the completion of the purchase. So it is possible to invest in media accurately and be able to calculate your ROI (Return Over Investment). And a big challenge, achieved here, was to effectively be able to do the same in offline media," explains João Lee, director of Simplex. His greatest satisfaction with the project, he says, is to see that algorithms and data already support several other areas of the company to better see market behavior.

About Bunge

Bunge (NYSE: BG) is a global leader in sourcing, processing and delivering grain and oilseed products and ingredients. Founded in 1818, Bunge fuels a growing world by creating sustainable products and opportunities for more than 70,000 farmers and their consumers around the world. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, and has 24,000 employees who stand behind more than 350 port terminals, oilseed processing plants, grain silos, and food and ingredient production and packaging facilities around the world.